LPEM Discussion


LPEM Academic Discussion

In order to stimulate a continuous academic environment, LPEM holds a bi-weekly open discussion to discuss a finished research paper or on-going research. The participants come from various backgrounds, consists of LPEM FEBUI researchers, FEBUI graduate students, researchers from other think tanks and policy makers. If you would like to receive the information on the event, present a research paper or attend the discussion, please contact vadrison@yahoo.com.


Past Discussions

May 23rd, 2014. Politically Driven Budget Cycle: Can Voters be Influenced (Vid Adrison, LPEM FEUI)

This research attempts to investigate the effect of changes in local government budget prior to local election on the incumbent’s probability of winning a local district head election. A theoretical model is constructed to represent incumbent choice of budget allocation before local district head election (i.e., capital spending vs other spending) and then derive a testable hypothesis on the effect of capital spending and other spending on the incumbent’s probability of winning an election. The preliminary result suggests that increased share of spending on others (such as spending social assistance) one year prior to local district head election increases the incumbent’s probability of re-elected and increased local GDP does not have any effect on incumbent’s probability of re-elected.

For further information on the research, please contact: vadrison@yahoo.com

May 9th, 2014. Towards the ASEAN Economic Community: Macro & Firm Level Data Analysis (Kiki Verico, LPEM FEUI)

This study attempts to analyze the ASEAN economic integration groundwork towards the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) of 2015. It utilizes a proxy of the impact analysis of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) on FDI inflows referring to the classical theory of economic community. This study adopts both multi-country (Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) of macro-level data and single country (Indonesia) of micro firm-level data. Single-country analysis uses Indonesia’s manufacturing firm-level survey under the International Standard of Industrial Classification digit 5 (ISIC-5). Multi-county analysis utilizes time-dummy variable of ‘before and after’ the comprehensive execution of AFTA. Different to multi-country analysis which adopts time-dummy variable of AFTA, single-country analysis utilizes the ASEAN’s Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT). Multi-country analysis operates longitudinal dataset while single-country analysis utilizes cross-sectional dataset. This study finds at multi-country level, AFTA is ineffective in attracting FDI inflows while at single-country level AFTA is effective. It shows that the impact of AFTA on FDI inflows in ASEAN as a proxy to ASEAN’s ability towards the AEC is various within member states. The capacity of ASEAN members to achieve major goal of AEC of comprehensive regional trade and investment integration will vary within member states as what has happened to AFTA.

For further information on the research, please contact: kverico@yahoo.com

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