SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, Mei 2021

  • Inflasi pada bulan April tercatat sebesar 1,42 persen secara year-on-year, menguat dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 1,37 persen. Inflasi pada periode ini didorong oleh penguatan inflasi bergejolak dan inflasi pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah, meskipun inflasi pada komponen inti mengalami sedikit pelemahan. Inflasi bergejolak tercatat sebesar 2,73 persen, menguat dibanding bulan sebelumnya yang hanya sebesar 2,49 persen. Inflasi pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah juga mengalami penguatan dari 0,88 persen pada bulan Maret 2021 menjadi 1,12 persen pada bulan April 2021. Sebaliknya, inflasi inti mengalami sedikit pelemahan dari 1,21 persen pada bulan Maret 2021 menjadi 1,18 persen pada bulan April 2021. Namun, pelemahan inflasi pada komponen inti tidak cukup kuat untuk menurunkan inflasi umum pada periode ini secara year on year.…
    05 May
    05 May
  • The Covid-19 pandemic is a crisis like never before. In economic sense, the current crisis is not originated from any economic aspects like credit crunch, banking sector collapse, or sovereign debt overhang. Thus, we are facing a crisis that has never been explained in any economic textbooks and it leaves almost everyone’s clueless. After more than a year living in a pseudo-dystopic world, we have seen enough calamity to the point extraordinary policy measures and practices to weather the crises is a norm. Excessive sovereign debt accumulation, central banks step-in to fund fiscal policies, and the quickest vaccine development in human history has taken place just to save the population from mounting death counts and help the poorest meet their subsistence.…
    04 May
    04 May
  • Continuation of domestic recovery trend is gaining traction. These achievements are driven by accelerating vaccination program and government stimulus, such as tax discount on luxury goods. Despite these figures, unlike the usual, inflation remains muted during the start of Ramadhan. On the external side, uncertainty mostly comes from the US developments. Massive progress on vaccination, stronger labor market, and better-than-expected inflation indicate very good news on the economy, prompting investors to put their assets to safe haven instruments. This put pressure on Rupiah as we see it depreciates against USD to IDR14,572 at the end of March. This month, we see The US 10-year treasury yield then gradually went down and capital starts to move to emerging markets,  including Indonesia. Despite low inflation, to continue anchoring Rupiah and to support recovery, BI should hold its policy rate steady at 3.50% this month.…
    19 Apr
    19 Apr
  • Inflasi pada bulan Maret tercatat sebesar 1,37 persen secara year-on-year, melemah sedikit dibanding bulan sebelumnya yang tercatat sebesar 1,38 persen. Koreksi pada inflasi umum ini didorong oleh pelemahan yang cukup signifikan pada inflasi inti dari bulan Februari 2021. Pelemahan ini ternyata cukup menutupi penguatan inflasi pada komponen bergejolak yang melonjak dari 1,52 persen pada bulan Februari 2021 menjadi 2,49 persen. Komponen harga diatur pemerintah pun mengalami penguatan inflasi.…
    04 Apr
    04 Apr
  • The performance of Indonesia’s macoeconomic indicators is currently showing an improvement, as recorded by higher CCI, trade balance, and decrease in daily Covid-19 cases. The improvement is fueled by better expectations of economic activity after the first rollout of Covid-19 vaccines. However, the positive sentiment from domestic side is vanished since the late of February due to the high pressure from external condition. The rout in the U.S. market following the higherthan-expected inflation figure which is reflecting the optimistic prospect of economic recovery has hit all emerging  economies’ markets, including Indonesia.  Rupiah has been depreciated by 3.70% (ytd) in mid-March.  The depreciation was driven by the massive capital outflow due to the narrowed yield differential between U.S. and  emerging market’s assests. In this uncertain time, we see that BI should be more vigilant against any increases in external risks. Despite the continuation of low inflation that is signaling muted aggregate demand, BI  hould prioritize the stability of Rupiah this month. Any expansionary monetary policy will be too costly for BI right now as the performance of economic condition is also far from recover. Thus, we see that BI needs to hold its policy rate at 3.50% this month as the preemptive measure to stabilize Rupiah.…
    17 Mar
    17 Mar
  • Inflasi pada bulan Februari tercatat sebesar 1,38 persen secara year-on-year, melemah 0,17 persen dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Koreksi pada inflasi umum ini didorong oleh pelemahan yang cukup signifikan pada inflasi komponen barang bergejolak yang melemah 1,3 persen dari bulan Januari 2021. Pelemahan ini cukup besar untuk menutupi penguatan inflasi pada kelompok barang dengan harga diatur pemerintah sebesar 0,32 persen.…
    03 Mar
    03 Mar
  • Indonesia’s economic growth contracted by -2.07% in 2020, plunged into its first recession in two decades since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Despite continuing a recession since Q3, economic growth was relatively better than -3.5% (y.o.y) of the global growth and was slowly recovered in Q4-2020 which was recorded at 2.19% (y.o.y). Although the impact of Covid-19 crisis is still lingering, Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to gradually rebound this year on the back of massive policy support to boost households and businesses’ confidence and provide adequate social assistance as well as vaccine roll out to dampen the infection rate. Inflation remains well below target and is not expected to accelerate sharply in the near term as demand remains muted on the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic that  ravaged the economy and battered people’s purchasing power. Surprisingly, on the other hand, the external conditions show a glimmer of hope with the continuing surge of portfolio inflows, favorable monthly trade surplus, and high foreign exchange reserves that helped to strengthen Rupiah stability. All in all, considering the current domestic and external situations, we see that now is the perfect momentum for BI to implement another policy rate cut by 25bps to 3.50% this month to support the economic recovery agenda while maintaining the financial sector stability.…
    18 Feb
    18 Feb
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