SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, Oktober 2019

  • Pada bulan September 2019, harga barang bergejolak kembali mengalami penurunan. Tidak hanya mengalami penurunan secara month-to-month, pada bulan ini harga barang bergejolak juga mengalami penurunan apabila dilihat secara year-on-year.  Penurunan harga barang bergejolak secara langsung menyebabkan terjadinya deflasi harga barang umum secara month-to-month sebesar 0.27%. Tidak hanya komponen barang bergejolak, komponen barang inti juga mengalami penurunan (menjadi 0.29% mtm), yang dapat mengindikasikan terjadinya pelemahan konsumsi dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Hal ini kemudian memberikan kontribusi terhadap menurunnya inflasi umum di bulan September 2019 hingga berada pada tingkat 3.39% (yoy), dari tingkat 3,49% pada bulan sebelumnya. Hingga saat ini, kami masih terus mempertahankan outlook inflasi kami pada kisaran 3,4%-3,6% di akhir tahun 2019, karena meskipun terdapat pelemahan konsumsi pada bulan ini, kami tetap melihat adanya sentimen ketidakpastian global yang menetap serta resiko peningkatan harga minyak global sebagai akibat dari insiden penyerangan pada fasilitas minyak Saudi Aramco yang terjadi pada pertengahan bulan September 2019.…
    03 Oct
    03 Oct
  • Unexpected rate cut last month implies BI’s concern over the risks of curbing domestic growth, prompting BI to shift its policy stance to one that preemptively supports growth.  Inflation is low and stable. Despite the lower-than-expected economic growth in the Q2 2019 (5.05%), the domestic economy is still perceived relatively favorably by foreign investors despite.  On the external side, the relaxing tension of US-China Trade War and the probability of Fed funds rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting has partly contributed to the influx of portfolio investment. On the current account performance, we see some signs of improvement to bring the CAD to be more managable until the end of the year. These developments should open space room for BI to ease its monetary policy further. We view that BI should continue the easing stance with another 25bps rate cut this month.…
    19 Sep
    19 Sep
  • Harga barang bergejolak yang cenderung mengalami penurunan terus berkontribusi dalam membuat inflasi berada di tingkat yang rendah sesuai dengan prediksi sebelumnya, secara spesifik pada level 0,12% (mtm). Namun jika dilihat secara year on year, harga barang bergejolak lebih tinggi hampir mencapai 6% dibandingkan tahun lalu yang menyebabkan inflasi umum berada pada tingkat 3,49% (yoy). Pergerakan inflasi inti yang sedikit meningkat memberikan indikasi bahwa tren pertumbuhan konsumsi cenderung mengalami peningkatan, setelah sebelumnya mengalami peningkatan dan penurunan dari 3,25% di bulan Juni, lalu 3,18% pada bulan Juli serta 3,30% pada bulan Agustus. Hingga saat ini kami masih juga mempertahankan outlook inflasi di kisaran 3,4-3,6% di akhir tahun 2019.…
    09 Sep
    09 Sep
  • Inflation remained stable at 3.32% in July; it remains within BI’s target range. Core inflation decreased from 3.25% to 3.18%. The decline in core inflation is much affected by the upswing of the headline inflation due to the seasonal effect; it should not be misperceived as a reflection of the households’ demand. Amidst rising global uncertainty, a low and stable domestic inflation provides room for BI to continue its easing stance that it started in June. In the real sector, subdued export and investment performance have been the biggest challenge to the GDP performance this year. GDP in Q2 2019 saw a 5.05% (yoy) growth rate, after a 5.07% (yoy) growth rate in Q1.…
    22 Aug
    22 Aug
  • Harga barang-barang diatur pemerintah (administered goods) dan barang bergejolak yang cenderung mengalami normalisasi berkontribusi dalam membuat inflasi berada di tingkat sesuai prediksi sebelumnya, secara spesifik pada level 0,31% (mtm) atau 3,32%  (yoy). Pergerakan inflasi inti yang sedikit menurun memberikan indikasi bahwa tren pertumbuhan konsumsi cenderung mengalami perlambatan, setelah sebelumnya mengalami peningkatan dari 3,12% di bulan Mei, 3,25% di bulan Juni, serta 3,18% pada bulan Juli. Hingga saat ini kami masih juga mempertahankan outlook inflasi di kisaran 3,4-3,6% di akhir tahun 2019, karena di tengah perlambatan konsumsi masyarakat, ketidakstabilan ekonomi global masih diprediksikan akan berlanjut paruh kedua tahun ini.…
    09 Aug
    09 Aug
  • Indonesia’s economic growth in Q1 2019 is recorded at 5.07% (y.o.y), lower than 5.17% (y.o.y) as  in the previous quarter. Despite of the seasonal pattern, the global stresses caused by economic downturn and wait-and-see mode of investors ahead of the 2019 general election might have impeded overall household consumption and investment. The manufacturing sector, which remains the most contributing sector, only grew at 3.95% (y.o.y) in Q1 2019. Amidst global uncertainty, the general election has ended, and the new administration would step into the office. The new government should take the structural reforms agenda of utmost importance and addressed through bold and significant steps to revive the  competitiveness level of Indonesia’s manufacturing industry.…
    02 Aug
    02 Aug
  • June’s inflation rate slightly fell to 3.28% (yoy) from 3.32% in May. This could indicate stabilizing trend of expected inflation in the medium term. A seemingly increasing trend of core inflation in the last several months should not be misperceived as an improvement in the households’ demand; it  only reflects a seasonal pattern. From the external side, the global economic slowdown continues. GDP of the developed economies persistently showing lower expected growth rates until at least 2020. Big emerging market economies like China and India are not picking up growth either. This poses continuing challenge to Indonesia’s external position. We project that the current account deficit (CAD) in Q2 2019 is going to be worse than the previous quarter. We maintain our view that achieving a substantial improvement of CAD in 2019 will remain a challenge. Current structural policies pursued by the GoI need to be bolstered further.…
    18 Jul
    18 Jul
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