SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, April 2019

  • Masih turunnya harga-harga barang bergejolak pada bulan Maret membuat inflasi umum turun sedikit di bawah batas bawah Bank Indonesia ke level 2,48% (y.o.y). Penurunan inflasi bulan lalu cukup banyak disumbang oleh penurunan harga energi dan bahan makanan (lihat Tabel 1) selama musim panen. Meskipun inflasi umum terus turun, kami melihat bahwa fundamental inflasi masih relatif stabil dan baik, yang terlihat dari inflasi inti yang tetap berada di atas level 3%. Membaiknya harga perdagangan besar, relatif stabilnya kondisi politik menjelang Pemilu, dan sinyal Bank Indonesia untuk melonggarkan kebijakan moneter di 2019 membuat kami tetap mempertahankan outlook inflasi di kisaran 3.4-3.6% di akhir tahun 2019.…
    02 Apr
    02 Apr
  • Robust economic growth last year reflects sound domestic economic performance amidst the global uncertainty. Inflation has been relatively subdued and approaching the lower bound of BI’s target band of 2.5 to 4.5 percent. The trade balance surplus in February, the highest since September 2018, will contribute positively to the series of efforts for improving the current account performance. Although Rupiah trend of appreciation has slowly disappeared, with now hovering around IDR14.200, it remains safe and under control. In addition to the trade war uncertainties, the key challenge ahead is associated with the global economic moderation, causing the fall in commodity prices, which will affect trade balance. Bank Indonesia should retain a tightening bias until the government actions in taming the current account deficit starts showing some promises. On the upside, if the portfolio capital inflow continues strongly, and BI is projected to accumulate enough foreign currency reserves, we view that BI should have room to lower its policy rate this year by 50 bps. But for now, it is time to wait and see until next month.…
    20 Mar
    20 Mar
  • Sesuai dengan ekspektasi LPEM FEB UI, terjadi deflasi (mtm) pada bulan Februari yang tercatat sebesar 0.08%, meskipun secara year-on-year penurunan inflasi umum yang cukup tajam terjadi di luar ekspektasi yang tercatat sebesar 2,57%. Sebagai perbandingan, inflasi bulanan di bulan Februari 2018 dan 2017 tercatat masing-masing sebesar 0,17% (mtm) dan 0,23%. Berlanjutnya penurunan harga barang bergejolak, terutama bahan makanan, yang melebihi tren serupa di bulan Februari tahun-tahun sebelumnya mendorong terjadinya deflasi bulan Februari. Kami berpendapat  bahwa gabungan turunnya tren jangka panjang inflasi dan musim raya panen yang relatif baik di tahun ini akan membuat inflasi umum (mtm) akan tercatat rendah dan tidak akan jauh bergerak dari kisaran 2.6-2.8% (yoy) di bulan Maret 2019. Di sisi lain, berbaliknya tren harga perdagangan besar, menguatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan sinyal Bank Indonesia untuk melonggarkan kebijakan moneter ke depannya membuat kami tetap mempertahankan outlook inflasi di kisaran 3.4-3.6% di akhir tahun 2019.…
    04 Mar
    04 Mar
  • The national economy grew slightly higher than market expectations amidst global uncertainty throughout 2018 with the highest recorded growth since 2014 at 5.17% (yoy). Robust fundamental conditions were also reflected in low and stable inflation. The trend of Rupiah appreciation, with Rupiah recorded below Rp14,000 level in early February, has been driven by the strong influx of portfolio capital since October 2018. Last year’s threatening external pressures have slowly subsided along with the weakening global economy that is almost certain to occur in the next two years; this will continue contribute to further lowering global commodity prices. This trend has caused challenges to the national trade balance which is mainly driven by commodities exports such as coal and palm oil. Crude oil price on the other hand will continue to be a source of uncertainty for Rupiah in 2019; the price has hit three-month high as global supply gets cut. Overall, we view that BI should maintain its current policy interest rates this month.…
    21 Feb
    21 Feb
  • Following previous expectation, we see that the economy in Q1 2019 will be slightly improved. A series of unexpected trends since November, such as the reversal of capital flow to emerging markets, lower crude oil prices, and negotiations between US and China, has brought positive sentiment to the domestic market. The effect of the influx of foreign portfolio investment in the last three months has improved Rupiah to be among the most improved currencies together with the currencies of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia, with Rupiah in these past two months trading at around Rp14,000 per US dollar. The trend of declining crude oil price in the next two quarters due to overflow in oil production may give more breathing space for the government; it is likely to improve the trade balance and also reduce pressure on the government’s challenging decision to hold fuel price at the same level until the general election.…
    19 Feb
    19 Feb
  • Inflasi di bulan Januari tercatat turun cukup tajam, di mana inflasi umum secara year-on-year (yoy) dan month-to-month (mtm) tercatat sebesar 2,82% dan 0,32%. Inflasi di bulan Januari ini tercatat sebagai inflasi bulan Januari yang tergolong rendah, di mana inflasi bulanan di  bulan Januari 2018 dan 2017 tercatat masing-masing sebesar 0,62% (mtm) dan 0,97%. Efek dari turunnya harga barang bergejolak merupakan faktor utama yang mendorong penurunan inflasi di bulan Januari kemarin. Dengan frekuensi turun hujan yang cukup tinggi, perbaikan logistik yang dilakukan pemerintah sedikit banyak telah menurunkan tekanan inflasi.…
    04 Feb
    04 Feb
  • Better than expected budget deficit in 2018, amidst the widening current account deficit, has positively affected the market sentiment and helped  Rupiah to appreciate to around 14,000  level. Rupiah is now among the strongest emerging market currencies since October 2018 as portfolio  investments are coming back, despite the Fed rate hike last month. The Fed’s dovish policy stance and US-Tiongkok trade war potential truce have  helped the global investors to start looking at the emerging economies’ assets again. Inflation, on the other hand, is still subdued, signaling slow and  steady consumption, partly due to higher interest rate in 2018. Considering the stable domestic fundamentals, the implementation of negative Tobin  Tax, and the diminishing external risks, we are of the opinion that Bank of Indonesia should hold its policy rate this month.…
    16 Jan
    16 Jan
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