SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, Maret 2021

  • Inflasi pada bulan Februari tercatat sebesar 1,38 persen secara year-on-year, melemah 0,17 persen dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Koreksi pada inflasi umum ini didorong oleh pelemahan yang cukup signifikan pada inflasi komponen barang bergejolak yang melemah 1,3 persen dari bulan Januari 2021. Pelemahan ini cukup besar untuk menutupi penguatan inflasi pada kelompok barang dengan harga diatur pemerintah sebesar 0,32 persen.…
    03 Mar
    03 Mar
  • Indonesia’s economic growth contracted by -2.07% in 2020, plunged into its first recession in two decades since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Despite continuing a recession since Q3, economic growth was relatively better than -3.5% (y.o.y) of the global growth and was slowly recovered in Q4-2020 which was recorded at 2.19% (y.o.y). Although the impact of Covid-19 crisis is still lingering, Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to gradually rebound this year on the back of massive policy support to boost households and businesses’ confidence and provide adequate social assistance as well as vaccine roll out to dampen the infection rate. Inflation remains well below target and is not expected to accelerate sharply in the near term as demand remains muted on the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic that  ravaged the economy and battered people’s purchasing power. Surprisingly, on the other hand, the external conditions show a glimmer of hope with the continuing surge of portfolio inflows, favorable monthly trade surplus, and high foreign exchange reserves that helped to strengthen Rupiah stability. All in all, considering the current domestic and external situations, we see that now is the perfect momentum for BI to implement another policy rate cut by 25bps to 3.50% this month to support the economic recovery agenda while maintaining the financial sector stability.…
    18 Feb
    18 Feb
  • Resuming the pattern of the first half of 2020, Indonesia’s economic figure in Q3-2020 came as a disappointment to many as it was worse than expected. Recorded at -3.49% (y.o.y), the official GDP growth of Q3-2020 practically puts Indonesia in a technical recession. Observing deeper to its sectors, the top four sectors of Indonesia’s economy (i.e., manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, construction, and mining & quarrying sectors) which accounted for more than half of the GDP, still experienced a negative growth in Q3 2020. While in the expenditure side, almost all of the GDP components contracted except the government spending. The total credit fell sharply to its lowest level in line with the slowdown in business activities and weak consumer demand. The persistent muted core inflation suggests that the the purchasing power remains weak until the end of the year. Despite the deep economic downturn due to the health crisis, Indonesia recorded eight consecutive months of trade suprluses from May to December 2020. The trade performance has released the pressures on Indonesia’s current account balance and Rupiah, where current account balance recorded surplus in Q3-2020 and Rupiah is relatively manageable until the end of the year. However, the series of trade balance surpluses does not represent a better economic outlook as it was spurred by the significant drop in imports due to weak international and domestic demand. There is no promising sign of the real sector recovery as long as the imports, which are mainly consisted of raw and capital…
    03 Feb
    03 Feb
  • Inflasi (YoY) pada bulan Januari 2021 tercatat sebesar 1,55% atau melemah sebesar 0,13% terhadap bulan sebelumnya. Pelemahan inflasi pada awal tahun 2021 disebabkan oleh masih lemahnya permintaan masyarakat dengan inflasi inti yang terus mengalami tren penurunan. Inflasi barang bergejolak juga mengalami pelemahan yang cukup signifikan menandakan terjaganya sisi penawaran. Di sisi lain, harga barang yang diatur pemerintah pada bulan Januari 2021 mengalami penguatan inflasi secara year-on-year (0,34%).…
    03 Feb
    03 Feb
  • Serving as the main theme of 2020, ultra-weak aggregate demand and purchasing power of the population is a rather global phenomenon, as the pandemic of Covid-19 wreaked havoc almost all the countries in the world. However, while some countries are doing relatively well in getting their focus in order and are trying to solve the health issue in a pertinent manner, Indonesia seems to struggle to manage the situation. Marching towards the end of 2020, any substantial signs of recovery has not been emerged over the horizon. Regardless, the occurrence of a recent series of events has materialized in Indonesia’s economic condition. By breaking down the component of Indonesia’s Balance of Payment (BoP), from the financial account perspective, the results of the US election and vaccines rollout in mid-November triggered a positive sentiment by investors; thus showering emerging markets with liquidity and caused EM currency to appreciate rapidly against USD. From the current account perspective, Indonesia’s foreign trade is also showing a rather favorable sign. On the other hand, a bleak development of public health condition continues its occurrence. A higher-than-ever daily recorded cases of Covid-19 left the government with no choice but to reimpose social restriction measure, as a repercussion of the overcapacity of public health facilities. Moving forward, the escalation of financial sector as well as the real sector remains unclear as it is highly dependent on the ongoing pandemic situation. With many things still on the uncertain status, we are on the view that BI should hold…
    20 Jan
    20 Jan
  • Throughout 2020, we observe an overall shallow inflation landscape, as made apparent by its inflation rate being the lowest in many years before (1.68%). The most important contributor to such a decrease in inflation is the administered inflation, for whic h we have observed a decrease of 0.26 bps from last year. The core inflation rate also contributes to an even more significant decrease at 1.6 bps lower than the preceding year.…
    14 Jan
    14 Jan
  • Bank Indonesia’s rate cut last month to 3.75% as the effort of boosting economic recovery has not reflected in Rupiah depreciation, thanks to investor’s confidence in the domestic market. Rupiah has been relatively manageable amidst the prolonged uncertain condition of the pandemic. However, there is still no sign of improvement in aggregate demand in the short term, as the higher inflation last month was mainly driven by the higher prices due to the lack of food supply during the rainy season. Despite the sign of recovery from the higher global demand as reflected by the higher-than-expected Indonesia’s exports in November, the potential robust recovery is still uncertain as we have to see the future condition of the health issues and the effectiveness of the vaccines soon. However, the potential stricter restrictions due to the worsening pandemic all over the world since early December should be weighted on the future policy decision held by the government as well as BI. If the full shutdown happens as the efforts to reduce the potential hike in the number of virus cases during the end-year holiday, the consumer will hold back their spending, thus, aggregate demand will be muted. Further, the investor will see this movement as the bleaker outlook of economic recovery and they will hold back of flight back their assets into the haven market. Considering the prolonged uncertain condition of the health crisis and potential stricter restrictions soon, any monetary easing by cutting the policy rate will be too costly and…
    17 Dec
    17 Dec
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