SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, Agustus 2020

  • Inflasi pada bulan Juli 2020 mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, yaitu sebesar 0,4 bps, hingga menjadi 1,54% (YoY). Bahkan, inflasi MtM pada bulan Juli 2020 tercatat mengalami deflasi sebesar 0,1% – tingkat terendah dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Adapun penurunan inflasi tersebut disumbangkan oleh turunnya komponen inflasi bergejolak (sebesar 2,11 bps) dan inflasi inti (sebesar 0,19 bps). Turunnya laju pertumbuhan output yang juga disertai dengan terus menurunnya laju inflasi mengindikasikan dominasi komponen permintaan agregat, ketimbang komponen penawaran agregat dalam shock ekonomi yang dipicu oleh COVID-19. Melemahnya permintaan agregat tercermin pada menurunnya laju inflasi inti secara konsisten sejak bulan Maret, sebagai bentuk adaptasi masyarakat terhadap krisis ekonomi COVID-19 baik dalam bentuk pengurangan konsumsi dan peningkatan tabungan (saving).…
    04 Aug
    04 Aug
  • It has been five months since the first announcement of Covid-19’s confirmed case in Indonesia on the early March. The massive widespread of the virus has brought a catastrophic impact, not only on human health but also on economic consequences. The set of measurements, such as global travel restrictions and social distancing, affect nearly all economic sectors. Unsurprisingly, the disruption was reflected by the lower-than-expected economic growth in Q1-2020 at 2.97% compared to the traditional consensus of 3.5-4%. The main contributors to the GDP, such as manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, construction, and mining and quarrying sectors, which accumulatively accounted for more than half of the GDP, experienced a contraction in Q1-2020.  At the same time, household consumption slumped to 2.84%, far below 5.01% growth recorded in the same period last year. The disruption in domestic demand is reflected by the drop in almost all subsectors in consumption.…
    04 Aug
    04 Aug
  • As the end of the pandemic seems nowhere in the near future, the government has been put in an extremely rough situation as business activity has been in halt for several months and through the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) has enforced some groups of people to earn less. The condition is costly for the government as it has to provide social benefits and several other stimulus to cushion people by safeguarding their basic needs and to prevent firms from being bankrupted. While the escalation of Covid-19 is getting worse in terms of its spread, the government has tried to reach a middle ground by applying the “new normal” protocol in order to stimulate economic activity without significantly jeopardizing the health and safety aspects of the population. Regardless, the impact of increasing economic activity has not been reflected yet in June’s inflation data.…
    15 Jul
    15 Jul
  • Inflasi pada bulan Juli 2020 kembali mengalami penurunan hingga 1,96% (secara YoY) – angka terendah dalam setidaknya satu tahun terakhir. Kami berpendapat bahwa tren pelemahan inflasi ini tidak terlepas dari respon agen ekonomi terhadap pandemik COVID-19. Ketidakpastian kondisi perekonomian mendorong masyarakat untuk meningkatkan tabungan dan mengurangi konsumsi. Hal ini melemahkan daya beli masyarakat, sebagaimana tercermin dari turunnya inflasi inti hingga mencapai angka 2,26% (turun sebesar 0.39 bps). Tidak hanya itu, lesunya perekonomian global dan harga minyak dunia yang belum mencapai tingkat pra-COVID 19 juga ikut berkontribusi melemahkan inflasi domestik.…
    03 Jul
    03 Jul
  • Several countries, including Indonesia, started to reopen their economies and relax their pandemic containment measures as the efforts to recover from its COVID-19 breakdown.  Even though the pandemic peak and settlement are still uncertain, Indonesia has decided to gradually revive the economy by loosening the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) towards the “new normal”. To date, the pandemic has hit all aspects of the economy due to the global supply chain disruption and weakening demand. Substantial deterioration in consumptions and investments is undeniable. In addition, Indonesia’s exports significantly dropped while imports plummeted at a higher pace; reflecting a gloomier outlook of the economy in the near future as a collapse in imports, which mainly consist of raw materials and capital goods, signalling a real sector contraction. Besides, inflation remains low and stable as weakening aggregate demand beat the limited cost-push inflation.…
    17 Jun
    17 Jun
  • Melanjutkan tren sejak awal 2020, tingkat inflasi umum (YoY) pada bulan Juni kembali mengalami penurunan, yakni sebesar 0,66 bps – menjadi 2,19%. Angka ini merupakan yang terendah sepanjang setahun terakhir. Kondisi ini patut diperhatikan, khususnya apabila mempertimbangkan bulan Mei yang merupakan bulan Ramadhan. Sama seperti bulan sebelumnya, kami memperkirakan bahwa penerapan kebijakan PSBB merupakan faktor utama penyebab rendahnya angka inflasi bulan ini. Tingginya angka pengangguran sebagai akibat dari penerapan PSBB telah berkontribusi terhadap turunnya tingkat pendapatan masyarakat, dan pada gilirannya, juga melemahkan daya beli masyarakat. Hal ini tercermin dari melemahnya inflasi inti hingga hanya menjadi sebesar 2,65%. Selain itu, deflasi komoditas pangan yang semakin besar juga ikut menurunkan tingkat inflasi umum pada bulan Mei.…
    04 Jun
    04 Jun
  • The Covid-19 pandemic has already hit Indonesia economy in the first quarter of 2020, perceived as the early-stage impact. GDP growth decelerated to 2.97% (yoy), became the slowest pace of growth since the Asian financial crisis. Household consumption and investment grew sluggishly as a consequence of the implementation of social distancing to curb the spread of Covid-19 which dampens demand and economic activities. These declines were offset partially by an increase in net export. Looking at the trade balance surplus trend over two consecutive periods, we predict that CAD will improve to around 1.4-1.6% in Q1-2020. As the pandemic peak is yet to come, the gloomy outlook for Indonesia economy prevails. Weakening demand, disruption of the global supply chain, and lower global commodity prices are expected to put further pressure on the economy in Q2 and Q3 2020. Meanwhile, we still see stable inflation as subdued demand countering the risk of a supply shock.…
    18 May
    18 May
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