SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, September 2021

  • Inflasi pada bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 1,59 persen secara year-on-year, menguat dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 1,52 persen. Inflasi pada periode ini didorong oleh penguatan inflasi pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah dan harga barang bergejolak, meskipun inflasi inti mengalami sedikit pelemahan. Inflasi pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah tercatat sebesar 0,65 persen, menguat dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 0,61 persen. Inflasi pada komponen harga barang bergejolak juga mengalami penguatan yang cukup signifikan dari 2,97 persen pada bulan Juli 2021 menjadi 3,80 persen pada bulan Agustus 2021. Sebaliknya, inflasi inti mengalami sedikit pelemahan dari 1,40 persen pada bulan Juli 2021 menjadi 1,31 persen pada bulan Agustus 2021. Secara umum, terdapat aktivitas perekonomian yang lebih aktif dibandingkan bulan Agustus tahun lalu. Hits: 17…
    03 Sep
    03 Sep
  • Indonesia’s GDP rose by 7.07% (y.o.y) in the second quarter and after exactly one year, we are now officially out of economic recession that started in Q2-2020.  Despite the better-than-expected growth of the economy, the pace of recovery will be limited due to the emergence of Delta variant that has a high transmission rate and causes mobility restrictions to be imposed since last July. Hence, economic indicators, such as Consumer’s Confidence Index (CCI), and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continued to plunge. From external conditions, the improvement of the U.S. economy resulted in investors moving their capital from emerging markets which caused Rupiah to depreciate against the USD. Therefore, amidst these uncertain circumstances, we see that BI needs to hold its policy rate at 3.50% while maintaining the exchange rate and financial stability. Hits: 7…
    18 Aug
    18 Aug
  • Inflasi pada bulan Juli tercatat sebesar 1,52 persen secara year-on-year, menguat dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 1,33 persen. Penguatan inflasi pada periode ini didorong oleh penguatan pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah dan harga barang bergejolak, meskipun inflasi inti mengalami sedikit pelemahan. Inflasi pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah tercatat sebesar 0,61 persen, menguat dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 0,49 persen. Inflasi pada komponen harga barang bergejolak juga mengalami penguatan dari 1,60 persen pada bulan Juni 2021 menjadi 2,97 persen pada bulan Juli 2021. Sebaliknya, inflasi inti mengalami sedikit pelemahan dari 1,49 persen pada bulan Juni 2021 menjadi 1,40 persen pada bulan Juli 2021. Meski demikian, pelemahan inflasi inti tidak cukup kuat untuk menurunkan inflasi umum pada periode ini secara year on year. Hits: 5…
    05 Aug
    05 Aug
  • Despite still being in negative territory, GDP growth of Indonesia is the closest it gets to the positive rate since the outbreak. Recorded at -0.74% (y.o.y), the Indonesian economy in Q1 2021 enjoyed a less severe contraction in almost all sectors than the previous three quarters. In addition, several sectors that enjoyed a rather positive growth during the pandemic were still recording an expansion in the first quarter of 2021. Diving deeper to its sectors, manufacturing industry as the biggest sector in the Indonesian economy with the contribution of more than a fifth, recorded a growth of -1.38% (y.o.y) in Q1 2021, a rather substantial increase from -3.13% (y.o.y) in the last quarter of 2020. Similarly, wholesale and retail trade as another major sector in the economy with the contribution of 13% to the national GDP, grew -1.23% (y.o.y) in Q1 2021 from -3.66% (y.o.y) in Q4 2020. As PPKM were in place during most of Q1 2021, it comes as no wonder, all expenditure components of GDP shrank, except for government consumption, exports, and imports. Beside disruption coming from Covid-19 pandemic, negative growth in most expenditure components is because we are comparing with Q1 2020 when the pandemic has not fully escalated domestically. Hits: 49…
    04 Aug
    04 Aug
  • The rising number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is expected to put the brakes on economic recovery. All economic indicators, such as inflation, CCI, PMI, trade surplus, started to demonstrate a grim outlook. We expect these indicators to continue to plunge in July especially after the government decided to implement partial lockdown in Java and Bali. From external conditions, Rupiah moves rather sideways as investors weigh in recent development in Covid-19 cases and how major central banks’ stances are. Despite the need to spur economic growth, there is simply no room for BI to change its policy as the supply side remains muted. To maintain the exchange rate and financial stability under the uncertainty of the Covid-19 crisis, we see that BI needs to hold the policy rate at 3.50% this month. Hits: 1…
    21 Jul
    21 Jul
  • Inflasi pada bulan Juni tercatat sebesar 1,33 persen secara year-on-year, melemah dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 1,68 persen. Pelemahan inflasi pada periode ini didorong oleh pelemahan pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah dan harga barang bergejolak, meskipun inflasi inti mengalami sedikit penguatan. Inflasi pada komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah tercatat sebesar 0,49 persen, menyusut dibanding bulan sebelumnya dengan inflasi sebesar 0,93 persen. Inflasi pada komponen harga barang bergejolak juga mengalami perlambatan dari 3,66 persen pada bulan Mei 2021 menjadi 1,60 persen pada bulan Juni 2021.Sebaliknya, inflasi inti mengalami sedikit penguatan dari 1,37 persen pada bulan Mei 2021 menjadi 1,49 persen pada bulan Juni 2021. Meski demikian, penguatan inflasi inti tidak cukup kuat untuk menaikkan inflasi umum pada periode ini secara year on year. Hits: 0…
    05 Jul
    05 Jul
  • The improvement of the latest economic indicators, including headline and core inflation, CCI, PMI, and trade surpluses, shows that Indonesia is staying on track for economic recovery. However, the economic recovery agenda faces a significant threat recently due to the rising of Covid-19 cases where almost 10 thousand new daily cases taped in mid-June. Any resurgence of emergency of the health crisis in the near future will be too costly for the economy as it will put back all economic recovery progress and efforts. From the external side, the market has been enjoying capital inflow resulted from the investors’ positive sentiment towards economic performance. Nevertheless, the market is also fully aware that the threat of earlier-than-expected tapering off by the Fed is still lingering. With the rising domestic uncertainty of Covid-19 transmission coupled with foreseen external pressure from the US’s tapering off, we see that BI needs to maintain the exchange rate and financial market stability and hold its policy rate at 3.50% this month. Hits: 0…
    16 Jun
    16 Jun
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