SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, Desember 2020

  • Inflasi (YoY) pada bulan November 2020 kembali mencatatkan peningkatan sebesar 0,15 bps relatif terhadap bulan sebelumnya, hingga menjadi sebesar 1,59%. Kendati demikian, data menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan inflasi tersebut lebih disebabkan oleh kontraksi dari sisi pasokan (supply) ketimbang perbaikan pada sisi permintaan atau daya beli masyarakat. Inflasi barang bergejolak, yang mengandung inflasi komoditas pangan, mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,89 bps dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, hingga menjadi sebesar 2,29% (MtM). Kami berpendapat bahwa naiknya inflasi pada komponen bergejolak disebabkan oleh musim penghujan yang menghambat proses distribusi pada rantai pasok komoditas pangan.…
    02 Dec
    02 Dec
  • Indonesia officially fell into recession since the 1998 Asian financial crisis as the economy contracted again in Q3-2020 by -3.49% (y.o.y), albeit at a slower pace than the previous quarter. GoI indeed needs to accelerate the implementation of stimulus packages, in particular to prevent those who have lost their jobs from falling into poverty and to save businesses that are at the brink of bankruptcy, while continuing several containment and mitigation measures of the Covid-19 pandemic in order for the economy to fully rebound from its dismal growth in 2020.  Inflation remains below expectations and without any signs of pricing pressures, indicating a prolonged weak of aggregate demand.…
    18 Nov
    18 Nov
  • Economic activities continue to shrink in Q2-2020 where economic growth plunged to -5.32% (y.o.y), much lower than the positive growth in Q1-2020 of 2.97%. The health crisis has halted the economy in nearly all economic sectors with the top three sectors of Indonesia’s economy (manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, and construction sectors) experienced a more profound negative growth compared to the overall economy. Moreover, economic downturn was also fully reflected in the expenditure side, where the household consumption’s growth dropped to -5.51% (y.o.y) from its positive growth in Q1-2020 of 2.84%. Mobility restriction, precautionary behavior, and labor income losses have led to a sharp contraction in almost all subsectors in consumption, except consumption in health & education and equipment. The limited business activities and household consumptions contributed to the slow credit growth. The low inflation figure during this health crisis also confirms that aggregate demand is still at its lowest level. While from the external sectors, trade continued to decline from its pre-pandemic level due to lower global demand and supply, though the figure has been slightly improving since July which is recorded by positive monthly growth. However, the deeper drop in imports than exports has contributed to the surplus in trade balance and lower CAD which is stood at US$-2.9 billion or equal to -1.2% of GDP in Q2-2020.…
    03 Nov
    03 Nov
  • Inflasi pada bulan Oktober 2020 menunjukkan adanya penguatan. Sepanjang bulan Oktober, inflasi umum mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,02bps hingga menjadi 1,44% (YoY). Adapun peningkatan inflasi pada bulan Oktober diakibatkan oleh adanya penguatan inflasi kelompok bergejolak yang mengalami inflasi (MtM) untuk pertama kalinya, setelah tiga bulan berturutturut mencatatakan deflasi.  Beberapa komoditas yang berkontribusi terhadap peningkatan inflasi bergejolak meliputi cabai merah (dengan kontribusi sebesar 0,09%), bawang merah (0,02%) dan emas (0,01%).  Harga beberapa komoditas ini mengalami kenaikan yang cukup signifikan lantaran buruknya cuaca pada pertengahan hingga akhir Oktober 2020, yang pada gilirannya mengakibatkan keterbatasan pasokan komoditas tersebut.…
    03 Nov
    03 Nov
  • Uncertainty is escalating, both domestically and globally. While the people seem somewhat unconvinced that the GoI has already and is doing their best effort to solve the health issues, other issues such as protests against the newly passed Omnibus Law on Job Creation and poor implementation of reimposition of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in the Jakarta area certainly add fuel to the flames. As a consequence, Rupiah has been in rapid volatility since midSeptember.In addition, with no clear recovery path to be seen over the horizon, aggregate demand will likely to stay muted as people with excess saving will tend to hold their spending and business to maintain their production level at its minimum level. Thus, any monetary easing for now might be futile to spur economic activity and might risk increasing the pressure on Rupiah depreciation and capital outflow. Thus, we view that BI should hold its policy rate at 4.00% this month, while also maintaining its macroprudential policy to manage financial sector stability.…
    12 Oct
    12 Oct
  • Inflasi (MoM) pada bulan September 2020 kembali mencatatkan deflasi sebesar 0,05%, menandai ketiga kalinya deflasi terjadi secara berturut-turut dalam tiga bulan terakhir.  Adapun kontributor deflasi (MtM) terbesar adalah kelompok barang bergejolak, dimana sepanjang bulan September, beberapa komoditas pangan mengalami deflasi: beras (-0,4% MtM), daging ayam (-1,2% MtM), bawang merah (-4,3% MtM), dan cabai rawit (-7,3% MtM). Meskipun demikian, tren inflasi kelompok bergejolak menunjukkan adanya peningkatan relatif terhadap bulan sebelumnya (baik YoY maupun MtM), mengindikasikan turunnya pasokan pangan selama bulan September 2020 – sebagaimana terjadi pada komoditas cabai merah.…
    02 Oct
    02 Oct
  • Since March, BI has become more concerned over economic growth risks and shifted its policy stance to one that preemptively supports growth to mitigate the impact of the health crisis  while managing the financial market stability. However, the increased risk of the deeper contraction in the global economy, coupled with the prospect of the prolonged spread of the virus in Indonesia, has caused uncertainty in the market at least since early September. As a consequence, Rupiah has weakened to the level of IDR14,900 as of September 14, 2020. It is recorded as the worst-performing currency in emerging Asia. Meanwhile, the accumulation of capital inflows further plunged, thus, picked up the government bonds yields. Despite the very low inflation last month, the credit demand is expected to be halted in the near future following the extension of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in the Jakarta area. These conditions provide room for BI to prioritize Rupiah stabilization this month due to the heightened risk of uncertainty in the financial market. Therefore, we view that BI should keep its interest rate at 4.00% this month to maintain financial stability while supporting growth through the macroprudential and unconventional measurements as the channels in prompting liquidity.…
    16 Sep
    16 Sep
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