SERI ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI: Inflasi Bulanan, Juli 2020

  • Inflasi pada bulan Juli 2020 kembali mengalami penurunan hingga 1,96% (secara YoY) – angka terendah dalam setidaknya satu tahun terakhir. Kami berpendapat bahwa tren pelemahan inflasi ini tidak terlepas dari respon agen ekonomi terhadap pandemik COVID-19. Ketidakpastian kondisi perekonomian mendorong masyarakat untuk meningkatkan tabungan dan mengurangi konsumsi. Hal ini melemahkan daya beli masyarakat, sebagaimana tercermin dari turunnya inflasi inti hingga mencapai angka 2,26% (turun sebesar 0.39 bps). Tidak hanya itu, lesunya perekonomian global dan harga minyak dunia yang belum mencapai tingkat pra-COVID 19 juga ikut berkontribusi melemahkan inflasi domestik.…
    03 Jul
    03 Jul
  • Several countries, including Indonesia, started to reopen their economies and relax their pandemic containment measures as the efforts to recover from its COVID-19 breakdown.  Even though the pandemic peak and settlement are still uncertain, Indonesia has decided to gradually revive the economy by loosening the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) towards the “new normal”. To date, the pandemic has hit all aspects of the economy due to the global supply chain disruption and weakening demand. Substantial deterioration in consumptions and investments is undeniable. In addition, Indonesia’s exports significantly dropped while imports plummeted at a higher pace; reflecting a gloomier outlook of the economy in the near future as a collapse in imports, which mainly consist of raw materials and capital goods, signalling a real sector contraction. Besides, inflation remains low and stable as weakening aggregate demand beat the limited cost-push inflation.…
    17 Jun
    17 Jun
  • Melanjutkan tren sejak awal 2020, tingkat inflasi umum (YoY) pada bulan Juni kembali mengalami penurunan, yakni sebesar 0,66 bps – menjadi 2,19%. Angka ini merupakan yang terendah sepanjang setahun terakhir. Kondisi ini patut diperhatikan, khususnya apabila mempertimbangkan bulan Mei yang merupakan bulan Ramadhan. Sama seperti bulan sebelumnya, kami memperkirakan bahwa penerapan kebijakan PSBB merupakan faktor utama penyebab rendahnya angka inflasi bulan ini. Tingginya angka pengangguran sebagai akibat dari penerapan PSBB telah berkontribusi terhadap turunnya tingkat pendapatan masyarakat, dan pada gilirannya, juga melemahkan daya beli masyarakat. Hal ini tercermin dari melemahnya inflasi inti hingga hanya menjadi sebesar 2,65%. Selain itu, deflasi komoditas pangan yang semakin besar juga ikut menurunkan tingkat inflasi umum pada bulan Mei.…
    04 Jun
    04 Jun
  • The Covid-19 pandemic has already hit Indonesia economy in the first quarter of 2020, perceived as the early-stage impact. GDP growth decelerated to 2.97% (yoy), became the slowest pace of growth since the Asian financial crisis. Household consumption and investment grew sluggishly as a consequence of the implementation of social distancing to curb the spread of Covid-19 which dampens demand and economic activities. These declines were offset partially by an increase in net export. Looking at the trade balance surplus trend over two consecutive periods, we predict that CAD will improve to around 1.4-1.6% in Q1-2020. As the pandemic peak is yet to come, the gloomy outlook for Indonesia economy prevails. Weakening demand, disruption of the global supply chain, and lower global commodity prices are expected to put further pressure on the economy in Q2 and Q3 2020. Meanwhile, we still see stable inflation as subdued demand countering the risk of a supply shock.…
    18 May
    18 May
  • Inflasi umum (YoY) pada bulan April 2020 kembali mengalami perlambatan dibandingkan dua bulan sebelumnya. Sesuai dengan prediksi sebelumnya, tingkat inflasi mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan dibanding bulan Maret, yaitu sebesar 0,3 bps. Fundamental yang sama terjadi pada bulan April, namun dengan intensitas yang lebih tinggi, akibat penerapan kebijakan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB). Tingkat permintaan agregat mengalami penurunan, terutama pada pada kebutuhan sekunder dan tersier. Hal ini tercermin pada penurunan tingkat inflasi inti menjadi 2,85% (YoY), atau sebesar 0,03 bps dibanding bulan sebelumnya.…
    06 May
    06 May
  • The pandemic of Covid-19 has shown as a shock we have never experienced at least in the last 100 years. The disturbance brought by Covid-19 is touching all aspects of life globally.  Besides risking the life of millions of people, Covid-19 is also bringing an economic turmoil not only at the individual level but also on the national and global scale. The turmoil caused by the outbreak has shocked the financial market due to the increased in volatility and uncertainty, which caused global investors to shift their portfolio from risky assets to safe-haven assets. This behavior of “flight-to-safety” has triggered capital outflows from emerging markets, induced the shortage of liquidity in FX markets and threatening currencies’ stability. Furthermore, the disruption of supply chain and credit crunch in the banking sector might pose a risk of goods supply shortage during the Ramadhan and Eid period which could  potentially translate into high inflation due to supply shock.…
    13 Apr
    13 Apr
  • The case of Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia has increased dramatically, reaching more than 2,400 recorded cases with an increasingly widespread distribution. The presence of this pandemic certainly poses a major risk, both to the society and the Indonesian economy. The economic slowdown in both real and financial sectors is inevitable. Amid the risk of significant disruption in domestic economic activity, the government requires strategic, massive and welltargeted fiscal policies to be executed swiftly. So far, the stimulus has been issued by the government aiming at two focuses. For the short-term focus, the government has increased the healthcare budget and accelerated the realization of the social assistance program. Compared to other affected countries, the amount of the health sector budget in Indonesia is relatively higher, around 0.5% of GDP. For the long-term focus, the government has prepared a strategy to recover economic activity through several initiatives, such as tax incentives and credit relaxation. So far, the total amount of fiscal stimulus packages has amounted to 2.5% of GDP.…
    07 Apr
    07 Apr
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