SYSTEMIC RISK CYCLE: EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN-5

  • Abstract This study is one among the firsts to explain the behavior of systemic risk. We examine the cyclicality of systemic risk through the business cycle dynamics by using data from 84 listed banks in ASEAN-5 from 2001Q1 to 2017Q2.  We employ SRISK as a measure of systemic risk, which represents the capital shortfall of a firm in the time of a crisis. The result shows that the relationships between SRISK cyclicality and the business cycle dynamics to vary across countries. We also show that the leverage ratio has explanatory power in explaining the dynamics of SRISK.…
    19 Nov
    19 Nov
  • Abstract This study aims to observe the relationship between deposit insurance characterizations and behavioral aspects (i.e. time and risk preferences) towards withdrawal decisions under hypothesized economic shock. Our sample is drawn from 154 depositors in Indonesia, 42 percent of which is classified as prime depositors – those holding a significant amount of third-party fund in savings. The findings suggest that the above-mentioned aspects have significant influences on withdrawal decisions conditional on certain scenarios of economic shocks. Furthermore, we found evidence showing that not only deposit insurance characterizations influence initial withdrawals, it also have important implications in deterring the contagion effect of massive withdrawal that may lead to the case of bank runs. We discuss our findings in relevance to the current developments of banking sector and financial issues in Indonesia.…
    23 Oct
    23 Oct
  • Abstract The online media has not only capture news at the national level but also deliver news on specific regions, either the province(s) or local governments. A focus on delivering more local economic news, may also align to trend of decentralization policies, triggered especially after period of post-1998 and the adoption of sub-national election (Morrell, 2005). Previous studies mostly explored of how economic news may affect election outcome (Holbrook, 2004), but not on the effect to related economic outcome. We use news data from four large media online, as follows: Kompas, Okezone, Republika, Sindonews, and Tribunnews, over the year of 2010 up to 2015. The data of economic news category, as it focused on news at the province and local level, are specific news classified in 13 categories. Based on fixed-effect panel regression,  our preliminary finding indicates of how economic news may positively affected economic outcome – referring to per capita GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product). By category of economic news, news on investments and on tourism tat have  positive effect on province per capita GRDP. Meanwhile, on the effect of political event, we only found a significant effect of  province election in the case of election year 2012. For these provinces with election year in 2012, more economic news instead associated with lower province per capita GRDP.…
    27 Sep
    27 Sep
  • Abstract This study is focusing to analyze the implications of implementing the concept of function identification in the intangible assets that is discussed in Action 8-10, known as DEMPE, in the Indonesia’s transfer pricing regulations. This research method is descriptive research with more priority to in-depth interview as primary data source. The result of this research is that there is relevance to apply BEPS Action Plan 8–10 in Indonesia, DEMPE concept can be applied effectively in Indonesia to overcome various problems, and its implementation only requires less significant adjustment because implicitly DEMPE concept has been applied mainly as basic inspection. Implementation in Indonesia’s pricing transfer rules can create new regulations that are generally described in PMK and the details will be explained in PER by adjusting to the relevance in Indonesia that allows added “marketing” function in the DEMPE concept. This implementation is expected to be able to get closer to each stakeholder’s perspective regarding to the procedure of identifying intangible assets that emphasizes the analysis of economic ownership.…
    05 Sep
    05 Sep
  • Abstract This paper attempts to assess the role of FTA (Free Trade Agreement) in enhancing both the trade and investment in both levels of the country and the region. This paper chooses Indonesia as the country and five ASEAN member states (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam) as the regional case of study. This paper uses net export and FDI inflows as the dependent variables for trade and investment respectively. Period of analysis is 25 years from 1992 to 2016. This paper found that FTA utilization is effective to increase trade and investment at both the country and regional level with certain control variables. It found that ASEAN is ready to move from intra-regional trade to intra-regional investment. Therefore, the ASEAN Economic Community is on the right track and in the right time for ASEAN. At the  bilateral level, this study proposed that the net export surplus is the aim for the negotiation to the lower income per capita trading partner  while FDI inflow from the trading partner is the aim for the higher income one. From non-regression model, this paper found that the role of FTA center is necessary to optimize the utilization of FTA.…
    13 Jul
    13 Jul
  • Abstract I empirically investigated the influence of residential location and housing unit characteristics on the labor force participation of childbearing women by applying quasi-experimental methods and taking a developing country’s perspective – where the family size tends to grow faster.  While the choices of residential location and housing unit characteristics are rarely exogenous, it is important to deal with the endogeneity  problem. I use instrumental variable models, with twin births and gender composition as the exogenous sources of variation in the family size, and exploit an enormous micro dataset from the Indonesian Census Population 2010. Previous works of literature have examined the effect of twin birth on the female labor supply, but less attention given to the housing decision. This study provides new evidence of a forward-looking behavior about the residential location and housing consumption due to household size effects and shows that such behavior will most likely influence the female labor supply.…
    23 Jun
    23 Jun
  • Abstract The inclusion level of DFS and Laku Pandai (inclusion of access or use of services) have reached 28% and 43%.  Nevertheless, when we define the inclusion by account ownership (inclusion of banking account), the inclusion rates drop to 5% and 25%. The lack of awareness of DFS and Laku Pandai is still considered as the major obstacle to broaden the access of financial services through agents. Laku Pandai appears more reliable in improving financial service access for the poor and people in remote areas as it may provide a more efficient access (in term of cost, distance, and time of transport) and perceived by users to provide better service quality than other formal financial services they have experienced thus far. On the other hand, DFS services seems to be more attractive toward more educated and higher income segment of society. Nevertheless, the cost of access of DFS is not much different from the cost of access of banks and other formal financial services while the quality is perceived to be less by its users. Furthermore, the efficiency of both DFS and Laku Pandai could be much improved since there is a significant overcharging in their service fees. On the account ownership, there is an indication that DFS is not a preferable financial access for people who are excluded from formal financial services while it is for Laku Pandai. The regression results also show that users of both DFS and Laku Pandai need time to open or to register an…
    12 Jun
    12 Jun
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