This independent research is made possible by/with the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this research report are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government or LPEM FEUI. I thank all team members namely Isfandiarni, M Shauqie Azar, Cita Wigjoseptina, Dhaniel Ilyas, Farma Mangunsong, Yusuf Sofiyandi Simbolon, Bhaskara Adiwena and Widi Laras Sari for their excellent support during the research. I thank Benjamin Olken (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) for sharing the dataset used in Burgess et al (2011), Center of Climatic Research University of Delaware for the rainfall dataset and Rhita Simorangkir for sharing the data. I would also thank to external reviewers for the earlier version of this paper, namely Budy Resosudarmo (Australian National University), Leonid Polishchuk and Ritu Nayyar-Stone (Urban Institute).