Denny Irawan, Febrio Kacaribu Abstract The financial crisis of 2007/8 has revealed the importance of risk, besides credit, in the dynamics of financial cycle and business cycle in the economy. This study examines relationship among those three cycles in the economy (Tri-Cycles), namely (i) business cycle risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and […]
Despite rising inflation, which currently stands at 4.17% (y.o.y.) or 1.28% (ytd), and high likelihood of June’s rate hike by the Fed, we view that Bank Indonesia should still hold the policy rate at 4.75% in Thurs day meeting. The fact that market participants seem to have currently priced in the chance of June’s rate […]
2017 presents both good news and bad news for Indonesia, which we expect to be evident in Q1 2017 economic data. On one hand, Indonesia has successfully weathered structural adjustment for the last 5 years and is now in relatively healthier posture. Investment climate has improved considerably due to the success of tax amnesty programs, […]
Pada bulan April 2017, inflasi tercatat sebesar 0,09% (mtm) atau 4.17% (yoy). Inflasi bulan April 2017 disebabkan oleh inflasi komponen harga yang diatur pemerintah, meskipun komponen inti tercatat stabil dan komponen barang bergejolak mengalami deflasi. Inflasi bulan April 2017 tidak sesuai dengan prediksi LPEM pada analisis sebelumnya karena dampak kenaikan harga listrik masih berlangsung hingga […]
Dear scholars, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia is now issuing a call for papers on Economic Research and Policy in the Changing World under an annual conference named The 2nd International Conference on Indonesian Economy and Development (ICIED). We are pleased to invite you to participate in our conference scheduled […]
With administered price hikes expected to drive inflation toward its 4% target, we maintain the view that Bank Indonesia should maintain the policy at 4.75% in Thursday meeting. Short-term external risks to Rupiah have been receding, owing to the fact that market participants have priced in Fed rate hike and revised down the expected rate […]
Pada bulan Maret 2017, deflasi tercatat sebesar 0,02% (mtm) atau inflasi sebesar 3,61% (yoy). Deflasi pada bulan Maret 2017 merupakan deflasi bulanan pertama sejak tahun 2012. Meskipun terdapat penyesuaian tarif listrik tahap dua di bulan Maret 2017, sesuai prediksi kami sebelumnya, deflasi bulan Maret 2017 terjadi karena penurunan harga komponen bergej ol ak yang mayori […]