LPEM COMMENTARY BI BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ MEETING FEBRUARY 2016

  • After cutting its policy rates by 25 basis points to 7.25% last month, we expect Bank Indonesia to cut the benchmark rate by another 25bps in the upcoming meeting. This possible rate cut is attributable to more controllable inflation outlook in 2016 and strengthening exchange rate in recent months. Weakening global growth outlook and downward trend of interest rates globally will also ease pressures on Rupiah. These also strengthen the case for more accommodative monetary policy.…
    18 Peb
    18 Peb
  • Highlights Foreign investment led Q4 2015 GDP, projected to continue in 2016 Consumption still dominates but fading Q4 2015 GDP to grow at around 4.9% (y-o-y), 2015 GDP to grow at around 4.8% (y-o-y), and 2016 GDP to grow at 5.2-5.4% 2016 inflation to be within BI’s target, higher than 2015…
    05 Peb
    05 Peb
  • Pada bulan Januari 2016, BPS mencatat inflasi (umum) sebesar 4,14% (y-o-y) atau 0,51% (m-t-m). Inflasi umum (m-t-m) bulan Januari 2016 merupakan inflasi bulanan terendah selama 7 tahun terakhir dengan pengecualian bulan Januari 2015. Dilihat dari kelompok pengeluaran, inflasi disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga terutama pada kelompok bahan makanan sebesar 2,20% (m-t-m). Dengan pola musiman yang telah mencapai puncaknya pada bulan Desember 2015 dan menurun pada Januari 2016, maka inflasi umum diprediksi akan rendah pada pada bulan Februari 2016.…
    03 Peb
    03 Peb
  • Secara year-on-year (yoy), inflasi umum sepanjang tahun 2015 tercatat sebesar 3,35%, berada dalam target Bank Indonesia. Inflasi umum tahun 2015 ini merupakan inflasi terendah dalam 5 tahun terakhir. Inflasi umum (yoy) tahun 2015 ini turun signifikan sebesar 5% dibandingkan inflasi umum (yoy) tahun 2014 yang mencapai 8,36%. Dengan kebijakan komponen harga diatur pemerintah (administered price) yang disesuaikan dengan harga internasional, menjadikan korelasi antara inflasi domestik dan inflasi dunia semakin kuat. Anjloknya inflasi umum didorong terutama oleh melemahnya permintaan domestik yang dibarengi dengan tekanan deflasi global sejak 2011 (Grafik 1). Dengan demikian, inflasi rendah ini memiliki toned negative dibandingkan positif bagi perekonomian Indonesia.…
    30 Jan
    30 Jan
  • If recent developments in the global market are any indication, Bank Indonesia is set to face yet another challenging year ahead. Current liquidity in the banking system does not necessitate a change in the policy rates while the demand for loans is still dimmed. BI should maintain its policy rates in the upcoming meeting and continue its focus on balancing between exchange rate stability and current account deficit.…
    12 Jan
    12 Jan
  • With the expected interest rate hike by Federal Reserve for the first time in seven years on the horizon, we maintain our view from last month that BI will and should keep its policy rates at the current level (Repo rate at 8%, FASBI rate at 5.50%, and BI rate at 7.50%).…
    16 Des
    16 Des
  • In a perfect world, current macroeconomic situation would have given BI some space to ease monetary policy. Year-to-date inflation hovers at 2.16%, well below BI’s lower-end target, while the trend of slowdown in growth seems to have bottomed out. This, however, is not a perfect world. We expect BI to maintain its policy rates (Repo rate at 8.00%, FASBI rate at 5.50%, and BI rate at 7.50%) in today’s meeting and in December meeting despite the fact that current situation is akin to textbook case for monetary policy easing.…
    17 Nov
    17 Nov
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