MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES: BI Board of Governor Meeting, December 2021

 

Domestic economic activity continues to improve, in line with improving public confidence as captured by rising inflation as well as the CCI and PMI.  However, the rise in Covid-19 new cases in several countries due to the novel Omicron variant that appears to be spreading faster poses a very high global risk, which could triggering a new wave. The retightening of government-imposed social restriction and lockdown are becoming inevitable, and these jeopardize any recovery that global supply chains have made around the world. Global market risks have also risen in the last month as a result of earlier monetary policy tightening due to the trend of rising inflation. Government’s effort to prevent massive spike in Omicron cases is critical in order to maintain the economic recovery momentum. Meanwhile, BI needs to maintain Rupiah amid economic recovery by holding the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% this month.

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