MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES: Indonesia Economic Outlook Q2 2022

Contrary to what was expected in the early last year, Indonesia did not fully recovered in 2021 and did not reach its pre-pandemic level of growth. Ending 2021 with GDP growth of 5.02% (y.o.y) in Q4-2021, Overall economic growth in 2021 is recorded at 3.37% (y.o.y). Waves of several Covid-19 variants has served as the hiccups on the economic recovery progress trajectory throughout 2021. Moreover, sectoral performances indicate that the economic recovery got back to its upward track at the end of 2021 after took a hit in Q3-2021 due to the disruption of Delta variant. Several biggest sectors in the Indonesian economy, such as manufacturing, wholesale retail & trade, and agriculture grew robustly in Q4-2021, suggesting the spur in production activity, household demand, and purchasing power of the population. Furthermore, two sectors that has been hit the hardest during the pandemic, namely transportation & storage and accomodation & FnB, enjoyed a significant growth in Q4-2021, thanks to the pandemic containment that enables people to travel and do leisure activities. From the expenditure components, All household consumption components recorded positive growth during the last three months of 2021. Accounted for more than half of the GDP, consumption grew by 3.55% (y.o.y) and government expenditure accelerated by 5.25% (y.o.y) in Q4 2021, which resulted from accelerating budget realization. As of 31 December 2021, government expenditure was recorded at 101.34% of 2021 budget or IDR2,786.76 trillion. At the same time the National Economic Recovery (PEN) budget realization was recorded at IDR658.6 trillion on 31 Desember 2021 or 88.4% of the total PEN budget of IDR744.77 trillion up from 53% on 17 September 2021.

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