MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES: Quarterly Economic Outlook Q3 2018

Persistently muted household consumption growth, which is still under 5%, signals that households remain very vigilant to fluctuations in income growth and external risks despite very low and manageable inflation. Under better circumstances, both government and central banks might want to push growth further by relaxing monetary policies and increasing government expenditure. However, both fiscal, current account, and capital flow positions do not give much room for expansionary policies. Indeed, central bank has increased benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points and the government has pledged to postpone some infrastructure projects to 2019 and beyond to contain current account deficit.

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