MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES. Quarterly Economic Outlook, Q1-2018

Relatively disappointing performance in Q3 and very possibly Q4 means that economic growth is still on a relatively shaky ground going forward in Q1 2018. Rising commodity prices and infrastructure boost have not been translated into higher consumption (Page 8). This condition is not helped by low loan growth for investment purposes, a sign of businesses holding back increasing production capacity. The need to guard macro stability from higher budget deficit means government had to adjust its ambitious infrastructure spending to a more realistic target, thus removing any hope that fiscal stimulus could drive growth in 2017.

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