SYSTEMIC RISK CYCLE: EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN-5

Abstract

This study is one among the firsts to explain the behavior of systemic risk. We examine the cyclicality of systemic risk through the business cycle dynamics by using data from 84 listed banks in ASEAN-5 from 2001Q1 to 2017Q2.  We employ SRISK as a measure of systemic risk, which represents the capital shortfall of a firm in the time of a crisis. The result shows that the relationships between SRISK cyclicality and the business cycle dynamics to vary across countries. We also show that the leverage ratio has explanatory power in explaining the dynamics of SRISK.

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